Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
